Future of Earth: A foresight chat with Denis Lacroix

(Transcribed by TurboScribe.ai. Go Unlimited to remove this message.) Welcome to Mind the Globe, the podcast where we dive into some of today's most pressing global challenges.

We are a team of seven international students from the Junior Research Lab at Institut Agro Montpellier, here to explore the issues that shape our world and our future.

Hello listeners and welcome to Mind the Globe, Junior Research Talk, the podcast where we explore the big challenges shaping our planet and the innovative solutions that could help us move forward.

I'm Fereshteh and I'm thrilled to have you join me today.

A little about me, I'm studying Environmental Protection and Agricultural Food Production at Hohenheim University in Germany and I'm currently on a mobility programme at Institut Agro in Montpellier, France.

This podcast is my way of sharing ideas, challenges and opportunities I've encountered during my studies.

Today, we'll dive into one of the most urgent topics of our time, climate change.

It's not just about weather, it's about systems that sustain life on Earth.

How do we respond to this challenge?

How do we plan for a future that is fair and sustainable?

But before we dive in, let me share a thought with you.

We live on a planet called Earth, a planet rich with resources that have sustained life for millions of years.

At some point in our history, we created a concept of money.

By using Earth's resources, we built economies and imagined a better future for the next generations.

However, along the way, some individuals realised that fear could also be a tool to generate power and wealth.

Stories began to spread.

Stories of looming catastrophe, tales of people who claimed to know the future and warned that the world could end at any moment.

Over time, many people lost trust in these voices and instead focused on earning as much as possible, consuming the planet's resources with a little thought for the consequences.

But here's the truth.

This way of living cannot continue.

We reached a tipping point where the cause of inactions are too great to ignore.

The question now is not whether we can continue this path, it's how we can chart a new one.

To help us explore these questions, we're joined by Dr. Denis Lacroix, a leading researcher in marine renewable energy and foresight studies.

His work shows how trust, planning and collaboration can guide us towards a better future.

Let's start by hearing about Dr. Lacroix's background and journey into this important work.

Well, thank you very much for inviting me.

I'm initially an engineer in agronomy and then I had a master in economics and a PhD in animal sciences.

I did my national service in tropical aquaculture in the French Polynesia, in the Pacific Ocean.

And I found it very interesting, so I worked during three decades into these fields.

Then I had to work into international cooperation.

And in 2006, the president of my institute, the French National Research Institute for Sea, asked me a special request in order to create a foresight structure, in order to face different requests from our ministries.

And the first one was about the potential of marine renewable energies for the two decades to come.

That was the initial work in this field of foresight.

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges humanity has ever faced.

It's caused by human activities like burning fossil fuels and deforestation, which release gases like carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

This has already caused the Earth's temperature to raise by over one degree Celsius since pre-industrial times, leading to more frequent and severe natural disasters like hurricanes, wildfires and floods.

But this isn't just an environmental issue.

It's deeply tied into global inequality.

Vulnerable populations in low-income and coastal areas are hit hardest, often lacking the resources to adapt.

These impacts are already visible and growing worse.

The key question is, how do we respond?

The choice we make in the next two decades will define the planet's future.

Scientists have modelled multiple scenarios, some optimistic, other catastrophic.

For example, limiting warming to below 2 degrees Celsius could significantly reduce risk of extreme weather, while doing nothing could lead to a rise of over 4 degrees Celsius, resulting in widespread ecological collapse.

This is where foresight comes in.

It's about imagining different futures and preparing for them.

Our guest explains why this kind of planning is so important.

Actually, foresight is a way to shape possible futures in order to enlighten decision makers and help them to select which could be the best decision to take in order to go to a desirable future, whatever the topic they are working on.

It's a way to also create synergies between different stakeholders, because most of the time the issues which are raised are very complex and involve a lot of people.

So, foresight is a way to create dialogue and the building of a common consensus.

Foresight isn't just a tool for government.

It's also crucial in industries like energy, agriculture, and urban planning.

For example, foresight studies have helped Egypt adapt its agriculture to raising temperatures by promoting heat-resistant crops and more effective irrigation.

In cities like Rotterdam, foresight has been used to design flood management systems that protect homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure.

The lesson here is clear.

Planning ahead can save lives, reduce costs, and create a more resilient future.

While foresight helps us plan for the future, we also need to understand the present.

And that's where scientific perspectivism comes in.

It's the idea that no single perspective can fully explain a complex issue like climate change.

Take climate science, for example.

Global climate models are incredibly powerful, but they can miss the local context.

Farmers, fishers, and indigenous communities bring a level of understanding that can complement the model.

For example, they often notice changes in ecosystems, like shifting fish populations or changing rainfall patterns, long before scientists collect the data.

By combining these perspectives, we can create solutions that are both grounded in data and sensitive to the needs of local communities.

One example is urban planning in New York, where flood barriers were designed using both scientific data and feedback from residents in vulnerable neighbourhoods.

Our guest shares how he applies this approach in marine renewable energy projects.

Well, you have several technologies that you can use at sea.

You have assets and drawbacks for each of them.

You have a lot of positions coming from decision makers from the political point of view, and also people who are coming from the technology, people who are working on the coast, and different interests.

So the most difficult thing is to try to establish a dialogue between all these people and to build a project that could fit with the expectations of the different stakeholders.

My key point of view is the fact that most of the time, these stakeholders are not enemies, but they should be partners.

But most of the time, the way it is organised and the position of the different parties leads most of the time to conflicts, instead of having a common research of a project which could answer to the different expectations of all these stakeholders.

And the building of this dialogue, the building of a long-term cooperative project, is not in the culture, most of the time, of industrial projects.

When industrial investors put one billion euros on the table, saying they want to develop a wind park, it's difficult to collect also information from small politicians, because they have a little part of the coastal area in front of this park.

And it's very difficult to build this dialogue.

And one of the interests of the Foresight approach is to help people to discuss around this table and try to build in common a project which could be acceptable by all.

At the heart of every solution to climate change is trust.

Without trust, it's impossible to move forward.

Trust connects science to policy and policy to people.

It's what makes collective action possible.

But trust can be fragile.

Social trust in science, institutions, and policies varies widely across the globe.

In some countries, misinformation has fuelled scepticism about climate science.

On the other hand, places like Denmark show how trust can lead to success.

Their high public trust in renewable energy projects has helped the country become a leader in wind energy, generating over 40% of its electricity from wind.

Building trust requires transparency, fairness, and inclusion.

One example of broken trust can be seen in Yellow Vest protests in France, where carbon tax was perceived as unfair to low-income communities.

To avoid this, policymakers need to ensure that climate solutions are equitable.

Our guest shares how fostering trust in renewable energy projects can transform conflict into collaboration.

The best way to progress, from my point of view, is to try to put the expectations of all parties on the table and see how they could be, how to say, processed in a common way.

I give an example.

Most of the time, investors in wind parks, they want to exclude fishermen completely.

And of course, it's a conflict.

Immediately, it's a conflict.

But most of the time, it is shown in the project that most of the surface of the farm is not used by the post or by electric wires.

And it could be used for fishing also, as it is done already in several wind parks in the North Sea.

So you see, investors create an area of conflict instead of trying to find which part of the park could be allocated to fishermen.

So my point of view is just the fact that using foresight analysis, we could imagine different scenarios.

And in each scenario, the role and the responsibilities of each partner is clarified.

And we have then a demonstration that there is the possibility to cooperate instead of having a lot of conflict between the start of the park.

And I have to say, in addition to that, that when you spend time in dialogue, you save crisis and money.

Our guest highlights the complexity of projects like renewable energy parks.

There aren't just technical challenges.

They are human challenges.

Scientific perspectivism helps us see beyond the numbers and models to the lived experience of people affected by these projects.

Imagine a coastal community where fishers rely on traditional fishing grounds to sustain their livelihoods.

Now imagine a company proposing an offshore wind farm in the same area.

The energy developers see an opportunity to produce clean, renewable energy, but the fishers see a threat to their way of life.

At the same time, environmentalists may be concerned about how constructions may affect marine ecosystems.

This is where scientific perspectivism becomes invaluable.

Instead of dismissing one perspective in favour of another, it brings all of these voices to the table.

By weaving together global scientific knowledge, local expertise, and diverse viewpoints, we can identify solutions that balance energy production, ecosystem health, and community needs.

In fact, we've already seen how this works in practise.

In the North Sea, offshore wind projects have been designed with input from fishers, who help to identify areas that could be shared for fishing and energy production.

This collaborative approach not only reduces conflict, but also fosters trust between the stakeholders, ensuring the long-term success of the project.

When thinking about climate solutions, the doughnut theory created by economist Kate Raworth gives us a useful framework.

It's about finding the sweetest spot between two boundaries.

First, ecological ceiling, which represents the limits of what the planet can sustain, like climate stability and biodiversity.

Second, the social foundation, which ensures everyone has access to basic needs like food, water, and energy.

If we go above the ecological ceiling, we risk environmental collapse.

If we fall below the social foundation, we create inequality and suffering.

The goal is to navigate between these boundaries.

Dr. Lacroix highlights how Renewable Energy Project can support both people and planet.

I think that we should be talking with all the stakeholders, such as tourism, scientific measures and observation, fishing, of course, sailing and diving.

All these people are interested in the fact that there is a new ecosystem which is created at 10 or 20 km from the coast.

They should be also involved in that project, not only to produce electricity, but also to discover what could be the evolution of this structure.

I want to underline the fact that if you decide to remove this spark at the end of this activity, six months after the decision, you have nothing on the sea and nothing below.

It's a unique example of that, dealing with mass plants for energy.

Can you imagine the time required to destroy, or well, remove a nuclear plant, for example?

Dealing with marine renewable energy is completely different.

This is a demonstration of the fact that if you have planned the organisation of this park, and with all the partners, you should be helped in several ways instead of having a collection of conflicts.

Dealing with cooperation, which was fascinating to me, is once you have the collaboration of different people, the ignition of that gives fantastic results.

I have the experience, for example, on the aquaculture programme between France and Tunisia.

In 10 years, we were able to start from 1,000 tonnes of aquaculture in Tunisia to 20,000 tonnes, with a lot of people involved in this project.

There were initially 10 different parallel projects, and in the end we had 80% success, which is very rare.

So, from my point of view, once you are successful in the collaboration, since the beginning, I think, since the conception of the project, you have a high rate of chance to be successful in the coming years.

So, you know, you have to provide a very special attention and care to the initial building of the project, not to wait to have a full finished project and to put it on the table as something which cannot be discussed.

Well, once again, I will repeat that anticipation allows to save crisis and costs, which is extremely important.

I would say that when you are preparing such a complex and long-term project, because the lifetime of a park is approximately between 20 and 30 years, which is quite long, in that time a lot of things can happen, notably the change of the different ecosystems related to the temperature evolution, and it's important to anticipate what could happen.

Once again, also, once people are involved in the process, there will be allies, there will not be enemies, and you have an objective gain to have people on your side and help you to manage this.

We have a good example, for example, in the south of Portugal, where you had a conflict about the development of artificial reef fields and fishermen, and the key idea of the biologists had been to invite fishermen to go on the boats of the scientists and also to be allowed, the biologists, to be invited to the fishermen boats.

And finally, it entails an excellent quality cooperation, because fishermen discovered that these artificial reefs were not against their job, but actually it was exactly the opposite.

They were helping them to gather fish and to develop new ecosystems.

So, you know, instead of having a conflict about areas, a part of the bay could have been given to the scientists and the rest given to the fishermen, they finally discovered that the whole bay could be equipped with artificial reefs for the benefit of the fishermen.

And after 10 years of experiments, they were able to discover that the global production of the fisheries in that bay was multiplied by two.

So, it shows clearly that when you launch cooperation, an open-minded cooperation, showing since the beginning the advantage of the different approaches, then you have a benefit to be shared by all the stakeholders.

Dr Lacroix's career is filled with inspiring stories, but one stands out, how he turned conflict into cooperation in international aquaculture.

Let's hear what he's most proud of.

Well, it's difficult to say there is one precise project which has been more successful than the others.

From my point of view, my main success, I would say, something of which I'm very proud, is the fact that in international cooperation, most of the time you start by conflicts, by positions which are very different, and people do not want to try to find a common way, they just want to defend their point of view.

And I had this experience, notably in working in the Mediterranean, as I was in charge of a program for the development of aquaculture in the sea.

And most of the time, the different countries were trying to keep their advantage and not to cooperate.

And I was able to demonstrate with a small team of experts that all the countries have a real advantage in sharing data, sensitive information about the sea, in order to share a common resource.

And it took years, I would say.

But at the end, we had a good team of people really convinced by the fact that cooperation was much above competition.

And the defense of national territories at sea didn't make sense, because the sea is moving.

So it's much better when you are talking, for example, about straddling stocks, that is to say fish which are moving from one border to another one, to discuss around the table which could be the best way to manage, at the optimum, this type of resources.

It took years, I would say three years, to move from open conflict to real cooperation.

And I think it's something which initially seemed to be impossible, showed to be possible after only three years.

So I was very happy with that.

Dr. Lacroix's work reminds us that big projects like Renewable Energy Park are not just about technology.

They are about people, ideas and ecosystems working together.

I would say that a wind park or any big project at sea is not only a space for producing renewable energy.

It's the creation of a new ecosystem where all opponents can find their function and usefulness.

How?

Just don't put barbed wire on the sea and in the sea.

And listen to all the stakeholders.

All good-willing people have good ideas also.

Thank you for staying with us throughout today's discussion.

As we reflect on everything we've explored, a few key ideas stand out.

First, we've seen that climate change is not just a scientific challenge.

It's deeply personal, social and economic.

It's about the future of communities, ecosystems and generations yet to come.

The urgency of the crisis demands bold actions and foresight provide us with the tools to navigate uncertainty and imagine a better future.

Second, scientific perspectivism reminds us that no single solution or perspective can fully address the complexity of climate change.

By bringing together diverse voices, scientists, local communities, policymakers, we can craft solutions that are more inclusive, practical and effective.

Collaboration isn't just idealistic.

It's essential for tackling global changes.

Third, we discussed the role of trust.

Trust in science, trust in leadership and trust in each other.

Without trust, even the best ideas will fail to gain support.

Building trust requires transparency, fairness and a commitment to listening to those most affected.

The Doughnut Theory gave us a framework for balancing environmental sustainability with human needs.

Showing us how to stay within our planet boundaries while ensuring that everyone has access to the basics of life.

It's not just about avoiding harm.

It's about creating a fair and thriving world for all.

Finally, Dr. Lacroix's inspiring story of collaboration reminds us that change is possible.

Moving from conflict to cooperation takes effort, but it's worth it.

Whether it's renewable energy, aquaculture or any other global issue, working together is the only way forward.

The Earth's future will be shaped by the decision we make today.

It's a future that depends on our ability to trust, to collaborate and act with both urgency and compassion.

As Dr. Lacroix wisely said, big projects aren't just about technology.

They are about people, ecosystems and ideas coming together.

Thank you for joining me today and a special thanks to Dr. Lacroix for sharing his insight.

Let's continue to build a future that is fair, sustainable and full of hopes.

Take care and stay inspired.